The Pardee Papers No 12 November 2010-Books Download

THE PARDEE PAPERS No 12 November 2010

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May 2010 Diplomacy Is Stalling: How the G20 Can Catch Up with the World Ambassador Paul Webster Hare (No. 14), April 2010 Beyond the Resource Curse: Minerals and Global Development Saleem H. Ali (No. 12), January 2010 Transportation in Mega-Cities: A Local Issue, A Global Question Nadaa Taiyab (No. 4), November 2008 The Pardee Papers series

The PARDEE PAPERS No 12 November 2010
Energy Transitions
Peter A O Connor
The Pardee Papers series features working papers by Pardee Center Fellows and
other invited authors Papers in this series explore current and future challenges by
anticipating the pathways to human progress human development and human
well being This series includes papers on a wide range of topics with a special
emphasis on interdisciplinary perspectives and a development orientation
Series Editor Professor Adil Najam
Associate Editor Cynthia Barakatt
The Frederick S Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer Range Future at
Boston University convenes and conducts interdisciplinary policy relevant and
future oriented research that can contribute to long term improvements in the
human condition Through its programs of research publications and events
the Pardee Center seeks to identify anticipate and enhance the long term poten
tial for human progress in all its various dimensions
The Frederick S Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer Range Future
Boston University
Pardee House
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Boston Massachusetts 02215
Tel 617 358 4000 Fax 617 358 4001
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The views expressed in this paper represent those of the author and do not
necessarily represent the views of the Frederick S Pardee Center for the Study of
the Longer Range Future or the Trustees of Boston University The publications
produced by the Pardee Center present a wide range of perspectives with the
intent of fostering well informed dialogue on policies and issues critical to human
development and the longer range future
Produced by Boston University Creative Services
2010 Trustees of Boston University
ISBN 978 0 9825683 7 8
Printed on recycled paper
1010 039415
Selected Pardee Center Publications
Issues in Brief series
Call for a Corporate Social Conscience Index
Stephanie Watts No 16 September 2010
Mapping the Complexity of Higher Education in the Developing World
Muhammad Hamid Zaman Adil Najam and David K Campbell No 15
Diplomacy Is Stalling How the G20 Can Catch Up with the World
Ambassador Paul Webster Hare No 14 April 2010
Beyond the Resource Curse Minerals and Global Development
Saleem H Ali No 12 January 2010
Transportation in Mega Cities A Local Issue A Global Question
Nadaa Taiyab No 4 November 2008
The Pardee Papers series
Coffee Culture and Intellectual Property Lessons for Africa from the Ethiopian Fine
Coffee Initiative
Heran Sereke Brhan No 11 July 2010
Narcotics Trafficking in West Africa A Governance Challenge
Peter L McGuire No 9 March 2010
Community Targeting for Poverty Reduction Lessons from Developing Countries
Moeed Yusuf No 8 February 2010
Linking Climate Knowledge and Decisions Humanitarian Challenges
Pablo Suarez No 7 December 2009
Managing Hazardous Chemicals Longer Range Challenges
Henrik Selin No 5 March 2009
Sustainable Development Insights
Global Environmental Governance The Challenge of Accountability
Adil Najam and Mark Halle No 5 May 2010
The Role of Cities in Sustainable Development
David Satterthwaite No 4 May 2010
Are Women the Key to Sustainable Development
Candice Stevens No 3 April 2010
Rio 20 Another World Summit
Miquel Mu oz and Adil Najam No 2 November 2009
Pushing Reset on Sustainable Development
Alan AtKisson No 1 October 2009
Other Publications
The Future of North American Trade Policy Lessons from NAFTA
Pardee Center Task Force Report November 2009
For a complete list and PDF versions of publications by the Frederick S Pardee Center for the
Study of the Longer Range Future visit www bu edu pardee publications
Energy Transitions
Peter A O Connor
Over the past two hundred years developed countries including the United States
have seen many significant changes in patterns of energy use These changes encom
pass the fuels and technologies employed the services provided and the environ
mental impacts caused Future energy transitions will be driven by the demands
of development combined with the constraints posed by climate change and energy
supplies Experience suggests that the provision of energy services is not dependent
on any one fuel or technology The history of energy transitions is replete with
innovation in the face of scarcity or other limitations This innovation is made
possible largely by the converters the energy technologies that can offer extremely
substantial improvements in the quantity or quality of energy services provided
These converters are generally flexible in the fuels that can be used and in many
cases offer significant efficiency improvements
This analysis examines the history of energy transitions in developed countries
primarily the United States to identify lessons for future energy transitions that
are likely to occur or are occurring in developing countries The analysis focuses not
on high level policy decisions or actions of major stakeholders but on the provision
of energy services to the population such as heating cooling lighting mechanical
power and information Factors that led to the replacement of one fuel by another
or one converter by another are discussed as are the overall market conditions that
lend themselves to energy transitions The analysis also explores instances in which
promising new technologies did not spark an energy transition or in which a
resource that appeared to be on its way out found new life
This research was supported by the Pardee Center Summer Graduate Fellows program Sup
port for continuing research is provided through the Mellon Foundation under the Energy
Transitions and Society project Special thanks to Cutler Cleveland and Adil Najam for their
guidance and support and to Miquel Mu oz and Cynthia Barakatt for editorial assistance
Carbon Constraints Limitations on carbon based fossil fuels imposed by countries in
response to climate change protocols At the present neither the United States nor any
developing country is subject to binding carbon constraints
Depletion Economically significant reductions in the available amount of a resource
resulting from use of that resource
Energy Carrier A form of energy supplied to an energy converter Natural gas an energy
carrier is transported to a power plant a converter turned into electricity a carrier
and transported to a home where it may be converted into light through a lightbulb a
Energy Converter A device that transforms one energy carrier into another or into an
energy service
Energy Resource A form of energy that can be extracted from the environment and
placed into useful service in the economy Fossil fuels sunlight wind currents and
uranium represent energy resources Electricity and hydrogen are energy carriers not
Energy Return on Investment EROI The energy contained in an energy carrier
divided by the energy required to produce it If the EROI is greater than 1 the energy
carrier can be considered as a resource such as coal taken from a mine If less than 1 then
the energy form is only useful as a carrier such as electricity from a power plant
Energy Service The forms of energy demanded by consumers and industry These
generally include but are not limited to heating cooling lighting mechanical power and
Mechanical Power The energy service provided by motors and engines for transporta
tion and other physical manipulation of materials
Energy Transition A particularly significant set of changes to the patterns of energy use in
a society potentially affecting resources carriers converters and services
Fossil Fuels Energy resources derived from organic matter that has been substan
tially changed by geologic processes The major fossil fuels include coal petroleum
and natural gas Minor ones include peat and shale
Hydrocarbons Organic compounds consisting of carbon and hydrogen Hydro
carbons include petroleum and natural gas
Share The fraction of an overall quantity provided by a specified category For
example wind s share of electricity generation is the amount of wind generation
divided by the total amount of electricity generation Lighting s share of energy
demand is lighting energy demand divided by total energy demand
2 The Pardee Papers No 12 November 2010
Energy consumption in the United States shifted from 70 percent wood in
1870 to 70 percent coal in 1900 to 70 percent oil and gas in 1960 These
changes were accompanied by changes in energy technologies and in the
provision of energy services such as heating cooling lighting and mechanical
power This analysis examines historical energy transitions focusing on how
energy resources and technologies emerged to meet the changing demands for
energy services in the U S From this history we hope to identify insights into
future energy transitions especially in developing countries
The first practical steam engine was invented by Thomas Newcomen
nearly 300 years ago This was one of a long series of human innovations
in energy conversion following on the waterwheel windmill oil lamp and
other devices going back to the harnessing of fire The pace and nature of
energy innovations in the following centuries led to dramatic transforma
tions in human life and economy as well as major environmental impacts
In the 19th century a number of agrarian economies dependent on wood
and animal power became industrial economies driven by coal and the
steam engine In the 20th century many economies underwent another
transformation relying on a variety of fuels in internal combustion engines
and electricity generators As the demand for energy services has changed
so have the fuels and conversion technologies employed to meet those
demands As populations have risen and economic activity has expanded
energy consumption has increased primarily through the use of fossil fuels
Faced with the challenges of climate change limits on fossil fuel resources
and the prospects of development it is reasonable to conclude that some
other sort of energy transition must occur No analysis suggests that there
is enough petroleum even with unconventional resources for develop
ing countries to build and maintain economies and transportation systems
similar to those of the United States Indeed even the present demand for
petroleum may prove difficult to sustain Alternative forms of transporta
tion fuel will be needed As countries respond to climate change carbon
emissions will be an increasingly important consideration in the selection of
resources to meet the demand for transportation heating cooling lighting
and other needs
Energy Transitions 3
Technological innovation is a major driver in energy transitions though it
is not the only one As Scientific American noted in December 1890 in an
article about the first wind turbine
It is difficult to estimate the effect of an invention on existing
practices and industries Occasionally a new invention will appear
which will greatly affect a whole range of allied inventions and
industries in such a way as to entirely change time honored cus
toms inaugurate new practices and establish new arts
Mr Brush s Windmill Scientific American December 20 1890
And yet even the technologies with the greatest transformational ability do
not change the system overnight or in the same way in all situations The
technology must be coupled with demand and with decisions by policymak
ers and consumers Political economic cultural and geographic factors
shape the demand for energy services and the selection of technologies to
provide those services
Importance of Energy
Improving access to energy services is seen as a critical component for
improving quality of life in developing countries particularly among the
poorest WSSD 2002 Townsend 2000 8 A report of the United Nations
Development Programme UNDP notes adequate energy services are
integral to poverty alleviation and environmentally sound social and eco
nomic development Johannson and Goldemberg 2002 1 Developing
countries are not without energy Residents buy kerosene for lighting and
dry cell batteries for various applications and may spend considerable time
collecting biomass Surveys of willingness to pay as well as pilot projects
for commercial energy programs find that a market exists but that in too
many cases the poor simply do not have the choice of consuming commer
cial energy Townsend 2000 12
Energy is crucially important for all three pillars of sustainable develop
ment social economic and environmental well being Energy for lighting
and transportation supports networks that connect people and societies
Energy for heating cooling and refrigeration enables human comfort and
health Energy for industrial and consumer uses creates economic activity
4 The Pardee Papers No 12 November 2010
Properly applied energy technologies can be used to mitigate environmen
tal problems used carelessly they can create problems of their own We are
therefore most interested in developing forms and patterns of energy use
that can advance social and economic well being while at least not com
promising the environment
History as a Guide
Some patterns of energy use in developing countries resemble those of
earlier eras in developed countries such as the United States The U S used
kerosene for lighting non commercial biomass followed by coal for domes
tic heating and cooking and animal power for agriculture Not all of the
conditions are the same however there are enough similarities that the U S
experience is illustrative For example kerosene lamps and non commercial
biomass carry low capital cost do not require sophisticated manufacturing
facilities and do not require extensive infrastructure
Similarly a limited electric utility infrastructure led to the use of stand
alone renewable energy systems in the U S prior to grid extension as
is seen today in countries such as Kenya In the course of economic
development patterns of energy use changed To what extent can we
use developed countries as a point of reference How can the experience
of the U S and other countries show what we might expect to happen
in a predictive sense and what we might like to happen in a prescrip
tive sense to support economic and human development in developing
countries Some of this analysis considers other developed countries
such as the United Kingdom However the primary focus is on the
United States because data on U S energy consumption is copious and
readily available
Demand for energy services is similar though not identical in all countries
Everybody needs heat for cooking food and most climates need some space
heating and cooling Agriculture and industry require mechanical power
With high literacy and access to reading materials people need light If
there are broadcast systems people generally want television and radio and
refrigeration enables preservation of food and medical supplies But the
conditions of each country are different Climate culture and infrastructure
Energy Transitions 5
affect the demand for heating air conditioning and transportation Local
resources will influence the forms of industry and agriculture employed
The United States developed its patterns of energy use based on abundant
low cost energy sources English settlers found firewood in an abundance
unknown in their home country and used it for domestic heating iron
smelting and early steam engines The country turned out to be enor
mously wealthy in coal oil natural gas and hydropower The U S made
decisions based on this abun
dance with sprawling suburbs
The U S system was developed before limited public transportation
the health effects of air pollution were and large well lit and well cooled
well understood and before climate commercial buildings The
change was recognized as a matter of United States uses more energy
concern A system built on abundance per capita than most other devel
and on the ignorance of adverse conse oped countries as well as more
quences is not a model for emulation energy per unit of gross domestic
product GDP Fortunately for
the U S the country is also enormously wealthy in wind solar and biomass
energy resources so it has the potential to transform its system into a much
lower carbon one in the future The U S system was developed before the
health effects of air pollution were well understood and before climate
change was recognized as a matter of concern A system built on abundance
and on the ignorance of adverse consequences is not a model for emulation
Several factors affecting historical changes in U S energy use are very likely
to recur in developing countries First as incomes rise energy users will
place a higher value on their time and will choose energy resources with
lower associated labor costs For example as in the U S they will switch
away from non commercial biomass for domestic use because of the labor
required to utilize that resource Second demand for energy services will
continue to grow and commercial energy providers will increasingly seek
out these markets Third if economic and political stability allow investors
will develop infrastructure which has historically been a necessity for energy
transitions Wood required nothing but an ax coal required mines canals
and railroads oil required wells tanker trucks pipelines and refineries gas
6 The Pardee Papers No 12 November 2010
required wells and higher technology pipelines electricity required genera
tors and an intricate grid These investments were often undertaken by
companies seeking to bring their product to market or by other investors
though government assistance was common Developing such a project
requires the investors to believe they have a reasonable chance to recoup
their investment
Two factors not present in the historical shifts in U S energy use also seem
likely to affect patterns of energy use in developing countries First constraints
on emissions of greenhouse gases may alter the economics of fuel selection
and in the long term seriously constrain the use of fossil fuels Second limits
to petroleum supply growth may affect the design of transportation systems
well before a system is developed to be heavily reliant on this fuel
Carbon Constraints and Peak Oil
This analysis considers future energy transitions most likely to take place
under constraints on emissions of carbon dioxide In the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC countries com
mitted to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
UNFCCC 1992 This requires limiting emissions of greenhouse gases such
as carbon dioxide Energy conversion is the primary source of anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions The low carbon fuels that are required to meet
carbon constraints generally carry a cost premium over higher carbon fuels
This analysis contends that
1 Carbon constraints will require some use of lower carbon fuels
both in developed and developing countries
2 These fuels do carry in the near term a higher cost and
3 This increase in cost will not be so deleterious as to cause a net
decrease in quality of life over present conditions Advanced energy
technologies will enable vast improvement over the present qual
ity of life even if countries must use fuels that are not the absolute
least cost option
Energy Transitions 7
Limits on high carbon fuels resulting from climate change regulation are
fundamentally not that different from limits imposed by domestic policy
depletion or any other cause The Industrial Revolution in the U S con
tinued to thrive after economic factors forced a change from the first fuel of
choice wood to the second coal Electricity improved quality of life even
in states and countries that were forced to use expensive oil fired generators
Cars were used even in countries that could not import petroleum
The same holds true for other limitations on fuels such as peak oil There
is not enough oil in the world for every country to develop a transportation
system based on automobile travel of 10 000 vehicle miles per capita per
year FHA 2008 and 25 mpg automobiles If a global population of 6 8
billion were to use petroleum at the per capita rate of the U S oil con
sumption would be 450 million barrels per day rather than the 86 million
it is now Even optimistic estimates of remaining reserves of two trillion
barrels could only meet this demand for about 12 years
Changes in the patterns of energy use take many forms Energy resources
include fossil fuels such as coal oil and natural gas and renewable energy
flows such as wind and solar energy These are turned into energy carri
ers such as electricity or gasoline The carriers are then supplied to energy
converters such as a compact fluorescent lightbulb or an automobile and
ultimately used to provide energy services such as lighting or transportation 1
An energy transition a particularly significant set of changes to the patterns of
energy use in a society can affect any step in this chain and will often affect
multiple steps
Two commonly cited energy transitions are major shifts in the energy
resources used in the U S economy Wood was the dominant fuel for many
decades until it was overtaken by coal around 1884 Coal was overtaken by
the hydrocarbons oil and gas around 1946 Wood coal and hydrocarbons
1 The generator that turns energy resources into electricity is also an energy converter although its
output is an energy carrier rather than an energy service When considering electricity the sequence
might be resource e g coal gconverter generator gcarrier electricity gconverter motor gservice
mechanical power
8 The Pardee Papers No 12 November 2010
each constituted over 75 percent of energy resources used in the U S at
their peaks The trends seen in previous transitions are not as pronounced
now that the energy system has become more diversified If we consider oil
and gas separately the current picture looks like a diversified but fairly static
energy economy relative to its pre 1980 pattern as in Figure 1
Figure 1 U S Energy Resources by Share
Sources Etemad and Luciani 1991 Schurr and Netschert 1960 Energy Informa
tion Administration 2008
There is at present no prospect of any one energy resource transforming
the economy the way that coal did in the late 1800s Different fuels serve
different applications Coal does not compete in the home heating market
natural gas does not compete in the transportation market and oil does
not compete in the electricity generation market A new energy resource
would need to compete in every sector to gain the 75 percent market share
that wood and coal once had But the economy wide shifts in resources are
not the only energy transitions the U S has seen A more expansive view of
energy transitions is needed
Resources Converters or Services
The rise of an energy carrier electricity led to tremendous advances in quality
of life and alterations to many patterns of society in the first half of the 20th
Energy Transitions 9
century A graph of energy resources will not directly capture this as electric
ity can be made from basically any energy resource Further downstream
the rise of two related energy services refrigeration and air conditioning also
transformed society These services were associated with electricity although
not entirely dependent on it To use an earlier example the rising demand for
lighting as documented by Fouquet and Pearson 2006 transformed society
and led to a millennium long search for new energy resources and new energy
converters Lighting was particularly valuable and its share of energy expen
ditures in monetary terms could far outweigh its share of energy consump
tion in energy units And the steam engine the energy converter that led to
the Industrial Revolution found its initial uses in a country already heavily
reliant on coal The transformation of that society caused by the steam engine
would not show up as dramatically if one merely graphed the share of coal
in the energy system since coal was already dominant By 1700 England
was already getting far more energy from coal than it could possibly have
obtained from its woodlands Freese 2004 56
If the hallmark of an energy transition is a significant impact on society
quality of life and the economy then changes in resources carriers services
or converters can constitute an energy transition We then have energy
resource transitions energy carrier transitions energy service transi
tions and energy converter transitions These transitions are connected
A change in the demand for an energy service usually causes changes in the
energy converters used The invention of a new energy converter sometimes
opens up opportunities for expanded use of an energy resource as the inter
nal combustion engine did for petroleum Improvements in the battery an
energy carrier have affected energy resources expanding utilization of solar
power energy converters supporting the use of electric cars and energy
services particularly information as with cell phones
If we consider energy transitions in the context of global warming energy
resource transitions are most important For the most part the selection of
energy converters does not determine greenhouse gas emissions 2 Depend
2 If successful carbon capture and sequestration CCS would be a technology applied to the converter
that can decouple the emissions from the fuel CCS would make the converter and not the fuel
determine emissions
10 The Pardee Papers No 12 November 2010

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